Wycombe 2–0 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Forest Green

C. Savage 52' (OG)

C. Campbell 9'

4/10/2023

League One · Round 41Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe59%

×Draw23%

Forest Green18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.89

Wycombe

1.79

Forest Green

0.89

Wycombe creates 101% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 23 away

1.53

creates per match

0.70

1.08

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Forest Green

0.70

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Forest Green

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

82%

Wycombe or Forest Green

77%

Draw or Forest Green

41%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

33%

Forest Green wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

83%

Wycombe 2+ goals

53%

Wycombe 3+ goals

26%

Forest Green 1+ goals

59%

Forest Green 2+ goals

22%

Forest Green 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

76%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wycombe scores more

59%

level

23%

Forest Green scores more

18%

Wycombe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. McCarthy

Wycombe · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

C. Campbell↳ C. Forino-Joseph

52'

C. SavageOwn goal

58'

J. Garrick← D. Bernard

58'

A. Bakayoko← T. Omotoye

64'

D. McGeouch← C. OKeeffe

64'

M. Peart-Harris← C. Savage

71'

G. McCleary← C. Campbell

75'

Dylan McGeouch

78'

N. Freeman← T. De Barr

78'

R. Tafazolli← J. Grimmer

88'

Harvey Bunker

90+2'

D. Gape← L. Wing

90+2'

C. Ward← B. Hanlan

90'

S. O'Brien← K. McAllister

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeForest

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots3

8Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots3

2On Target2

3Off Target0

0Blocked1

4Inside Box2

1Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

338Total Passes407

224Accurate Passes290

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0