Forest Green 0–2 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wycombe

G. McCleary 27'

D. Wheeler 14'

11/12/2022

League One · Round 18The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Forest Green24%

×Draw26%

Wycombe50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.54

Forest Green

0.99

Wycombe

1.54

Wycombe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 158 away

0.65

creates per match

1.26

1.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Forest Green

0.65

Wycombe

1.26

allows per match

Forest Green

1.83

Wycombe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

50%

Forest Green or Wycombe

74%

Draw or Wycombe

76%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

9%

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

63%

Forest Green 2+ goals

26%

Forest Green 3+ goals

8%

Wycombe 1+ goals

79%

Wycombe 2+ goals

45%

Wycombe 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

33%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 0.65 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.99

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Forest Green defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Forest Green scores more

24%

level

26%

Wycombe scores more

50%

Wycombe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Mawson

Wycombe · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

14'

27'

31'

46'

62'

62'

62'

62'

62'

71'

S. Kaikai← A. Mehmeti

80'

B. Fiabema← Christian Marques

88'

A. Little← H. Bunker

89'

J. McCarthy← G. McCleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestWycombe

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots16

6Corners6

8Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots16

1On Target4

6Off Target5

7Blocked7

11Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

424Total Passes261

305Accurate Passes150

72%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls21

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2