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Wycombe vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
1/27/2024League OneLeague One · Round 30Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Wycombe45%
×Draw26%
Fleetwood Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.47
Fleetwood Town
1.11

Wycombe creates 32% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 134 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.51
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Wycombe
1.05
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
71%
Wycombe or Fleetwood Town
74%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
55%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
22%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
77%
Wycombe 2+ goals
43%
Wycombe 3+ goals
18%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
67%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
30%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
61%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wycombe scores more
45%
level
26%
Fleetwood Town scores more
29%

Wycombe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Fleetwood Town

Wycombe and Fleetwood Town drew 2-2 in League One on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.