Wycombe 2–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fleetwood Town

3/7/2023

League One · Round 29Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Wycombe46%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Wycombe

1.48

Fleetwood Town

1.11

Wycombe creates 33% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 132 away

1.52

creates per match

1.17

1.05

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Wycombe

1.52

Fleetwood Town

1.17

allows per match

Wycombe

1.05

Fleetwood Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

72%

Wycombe or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

54%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

23%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

77%

Wycombe 2+ goals

43%

Wycombe 3+ goals

19%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

67%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

30%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

62%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 158 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.44 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.52 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wycombe scores more

46%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

28%

Wycombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff