Wycombe 3–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burton Albion

N. Lowe 82'

L. Harris 81'

C. Boyd-Munce 15'

2/28/2026

League One · Round 35Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Wycombe51%

×Draw23%

Burton Albion26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.21

Wycombe

1.79

Burton Albion

1.21

Wycombe creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.94

creates per match

1.30

1.11

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Burton Albion

1.64

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

74%

Wycombe or Burton Albion

77%

Draw or Burton Albion

49%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

28%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

83%

Wycombe 2+ goals

53%

Wycombe 3+ goals

26%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

34%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

66%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wycombe scores more

51%

level

23%

Burton Albion scores more

26%

Wycombe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Boyd-Munce

Wycombe · M

8.7

Match Events

15'

20'

45+2'

45+2'

46'

A. Morley← E. Henderson

55'

Will Norris

58'

T. Allen← A. Hagelskjaer

59'

N. Lowe← C. Woodrow

69'

J. J. McKiernan← A. Cannon

75'

A. Quitirna← J. Mullins

78'

F. Tavares← T. Shade

78'

S. Krubally← K. Chauke

81'

L. Harris

82'

N. Lowe↳ C. Boyd-Munce

85'

Toby Sibbick

86'

A. Vidigal← F. Onyedinma

87'

J. Larsson← K. Lofthouse

87'

J. Moon← J. Beesley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBurton

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots6

1.19Expected Goals (xG)0.85

3Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots6

3On Target3

3Off Target0

2Blocked3

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box0

Passing

47%Possession53%

352Total Passes399

221Accurate Passes274

63%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2