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Wycombe vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
3/4/2025League OneLeague One · Round 35Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wycombe49%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.87
Burton Albion
1.36

Wycombe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Wycombe
2.18
Burton Albion
1.57

allows per match

Wycombe
1.16
Burton Albion
1.55

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par
Burton Albion-0.24scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
72%
Wycombe or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
51%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
28%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
85%
Wycombe 2+ goals
56%
Wycombe 3+ goals
29%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
74%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
39%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
64%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 2.18 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.87

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Wycombe defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wycombe scores more
49%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
28%

Wycombe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Burton Albion

Wycombe beat Burton Albion 2-0 in League One on March 4, 2025.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.