Wycombe 0–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

L. Leahy 48' (OG)

4/18/2026

League One · Round 44Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wycombe56%

×Draw23%

Blackpool21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.02

Wycombe

1.83

Blackpool

1.02

Wycombe creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.95

creates per match

0.88

1.16

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Wycombe

1.95

Blackpool

0.88

allows per match

Wycombe

1.16

Blackpool

1.72

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe+0.05on par

Blackpool+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

79%

Wycombe or Blackpool

77%

Draw or Blackpool

44%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

32%

Blackpool wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

84%

Wycombe 2+ goals

54%

Wycombe 3+ goals

28%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

73%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.95 + Blackpool defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Blackpool attack 0.88 + Wycombe defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wycombe scores more

56%

level

23%

Blackpool scores more

21%

Wycombe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Taylor

Wycombe · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

Cauley Woodrow

14'

F. Onyedinma← N. Lowe

31'

Oliver Casey

48'

L. LeahyOwn goal

60'

Hayden Coulson

60'

J. Mullins← C. Woodrow

60'

J. Scowen← L. Leahy

61'

Declan Skura

66'

A. Fletcher← T. Bloxham

66'

N. Ennis← D. Taylor

70'

Hayden Coulson

70'

Hayden Coulson

71'

Z. Ashworth← L. Clarkson

74'

E. Henderson← N. Huggins

74'

L. Harris← A. Morley

86'

James Husband

90+2'

R. Finnigan← C. Hamilton

90+2'

A. Lyons←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBlackpool

Overview

71%Possession29%

15Total Shots5

2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.65

10Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots5

6On Target1

4Off Target4

5Blocked0

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

448Total Passes184

350Accurate Passes95

78%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1