Wycombe 2–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

B. Hanlan 46'

S. Vokes 13'

9/16/2023

League One · Round 8Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Wycombe56%

×Draw23%

Blackpool21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.02

Wycombe

1.84

Blackpool

1.02

Wycombe creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.94

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Blackpool

1.75

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

79%

Wycombe or Blackpool

77%

Draw or Blackpool

44%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

32%

Blackpool wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

84%

Wycombe 2+ goals

55%

Wycombe 3+ goals

28%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

73%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wycombe scores more

56%

level

23%

Blackpool scores more

21%

Wycombe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Stryjek

Wycombe · G

7.7

Match Events

13'

S. Vokes

46'

B. Hanlan↳ G. McCleary

56'

S. Carey← A. Morgan

57'

K. Dougall← J. Weir

57'

K. Dembélé← J. Beesley

59'

64'

70'

74'

81'

81'

D. Wheeler← G. McCleary

88'

K. Phillips← K. Vincent-Young

90+2'

Christian Forino-Joseph

90+5'

T. De Barr← B. Hanlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBlackpool

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots11

0Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target2

5Off Target7

1Blocked2

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

296Total Passes528

191Accurate Passes411

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2