Wycombe 0–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

8/4/2018

League One · Round 1Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Wycombe56%

×Draw23%

Blackpool21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.02

Wycombe

1.84

Blackpool

1.02

Wycombe creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.94

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Blackpool

1.75

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

79%

Wycombe or Blackpool

77%

Draw or Blackpool

44%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

32%

Blackpool wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

84%

Wycombe 2+ goals

55%

Wycombe 3+ goals

28%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

73%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wycombe scores more

56%

level

23%

Blackpool scores more

21%

Wycombe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Chris Taylor

40'

Adam El-Abd

46'

J. O'Sullivan← M. Nottingham

53'

Michael Harriman

63'

J. Thompson← C. Taylor

73'

A. Gnanduillet← J. Dodoo

74'

N. Freeman← P. Cowan-Hall

81'

C. Mackail-Smith← A. Akinfenwa

89'

Michael Harriman

89'

Michael Harriman

90'

Sido Jombarti← R Williams

Wycombe

Blackpool

1

Howard

20

Turton

39

Bunney

12

▼

Nottingha

5

O'Connor

8

Spearing

19

▼

14

6

7

11

▼

1

6

3

16

5

8

7

10

20

▼

Akinfenwa

12

▼

Cowan-Hal

24

▼

Williams

Manager: G. Ainsworth

74'▲N. Freeman←▼P. Cowan-Hall

81'▲C. Mackail-Smith←▼A. Akinfenwa

90'▲Sido Jombarti←▼R Williams

Wycombe substitutes

22Freeman9Mackail-Smith2Jombarti18Thompson30Ma-Kalambay

Manager: G. Bowyer

46'▲J. O'Sullivan←▼M. Nottingham

63'▲J. Thompson←▼C. Taylor

73'▲A. Gnanduillet←▼J. Dodoo

Blackpool substitutes

18O'Sullivan15Thompson21Gnanduillet9Cullen27Bola29Sinclair-Smith37Mafoumbi