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Wuxi Wugou vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
7/15/2023League OneLeague One · Round 14Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuxi Wugou33%
×Draw29%
Jinan Xingzhou38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuxi Wugou
1.08
Jinan Xingzhou
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.03
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.28
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuxi Wugou ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wuxi Wugou or draw
62%
Wuxi Wugou or Jinan Xingzhou
71%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
67%

Winning margin

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
13%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
66%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
29%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
10%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
69%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
33%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
47%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuxi Wugou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.03 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wuxi Wugou scores more
33%
level
29%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
38%

Jinan Xingzhou at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wuxi Wugou 0–2 Jinan Xingzhou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Wuxi Wugou 2-0 in League One on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Jiangyin.