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Jinan Xingzhou vs Wuxi Wugou — League Two 2022

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
11/13/2022League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 2Dafeng Olympic Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou52%
×Draw25%
Wuxi Wugou23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.60
Wuxi Wugou
0.97

Jinan Xingzhou creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
2.25
Wuxi Wugou
1.45

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.50
Wuxi Wugou
0.95

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Wuxi Wugou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
77%
Jinan Xingzhou or Wuxi Wugou
75%
Draw or Wuxi Wugou
48%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
27%
Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
80%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
47%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
22%
Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
62%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
25%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
69%
Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Wuxi Wugou away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 2.25 + Wuxi Wugou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.45 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
52%
level
25%
Wuxi Wugou scores more
23%

Jinan Xingzhou at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Jinan Xingzhou 3–1 Wuxi Wugou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Wuxi Wugou 3-1 in League Two on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Dafeng Olympic Sports Centre in Yancheng.