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Wuxi Wugou vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
FT
3 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
8/3/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wuxi Wugou62%
×Draw23%
Hunan Billows FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuxi Wugou
1.71
Hunan Billows FC
0.68

Wuxi Wugou creates 151% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

creates per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.52
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Wuxi Wugou
0.43
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuxi Wugou ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wuxi Wugou or draw
86%
Wuxi Wugou or Hunan Billows FC
77%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
38%

Winning margin

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
35%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
82%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
51%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
24%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
49%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
15%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
81%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuxi Wugou at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.52 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Wuxi Wugou defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wuxi Wugou scores more
62%
level
23%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
14%

Wuxi Wugou at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wuxi Wugou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuxi Wugou vs Hunan Billows FC

Wuxi Wugou beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on August 3, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1 in Yancheng.