Hunan Billows FC 1–3 Wuxi Wugou: Result & Stats

Hunan Billows FC

FT

1 – 3

Wuxi Wugou

7/11/2022

League Two · Round 3Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hunan Billows FC24%

×Draw24%

Wuxi Wugou51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hunan Billows FCExpected goals in this matchWuxi Wugou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.68

Hunan Billows FC

1.08

Wuxi Wugou

1.68

Wuxi Wugou creates 56% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

1.45

1.91

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC

1.22

Wuxi Wugou

1.45

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC

1.91

Wuxi Wugou

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Wuxi Wugou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw

49%

Hunan Billows FC or Wuxi Wugou

76%

Draw or Wuxi Wugou

76%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+

9%

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals

66%

Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals

29%

Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals

10%

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals

81%

Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals

50%

Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)

32%

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Wuxi Wugou away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Wuxi Wugou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.45 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more

24%

level

24%

Wuxi Wugou scores more

51%

Wuxi Wugou at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wuxi Wugou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff