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Wuxi Wugou vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
11/5/2023League OneLeague One · Round 30Wuxi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuxi Wugou40%
×Draw30%
Dantong Hantong30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuxi Wugou
1.15
Dantong Hantong
0.94

Wuxi Wugou creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.03
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.28
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuxi Wugou ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wuxi Wugou or draw
70%
Wuxi Wugou or Dantong Hantong
70%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
60%

Winning margin

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
17%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
68%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
32%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
11%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
61%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
24%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
58%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuxi Wugou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.03 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wuxi Wugou scores more
40%
level
30%
Dantong Hantong scores more
30%

Wuxi Wugou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuxi Wugou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuxi Wugou vs Dantong Hantong

Wuxi Wugou beat Dantong Hantong 3-0 in League One on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Wuxi Sports Center in Wuxi.