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Dantong Hantong vs Wuxi Wugou — League Two 2022

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
8/9/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dantong Hantong28%
×Draw31%
Wuxi Wugou41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
0.83
Wuxi Wugou
1.08

Wuxi Wugou creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Wuxi Wugou
1.45

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Wuxi Wugou
0.95

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Wuxi Wugou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
59%
Dantong Hantong or Wuxi Wugou
69%
Draw or Wuxi Wugou
72%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
9%
Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
56%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
20%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
5%
Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
66%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
29%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
40%
Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Wuxi Wugou away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.71 + Wuxi Wugou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.45 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
28%
level
31%
Wuxi Wugou scores more
41%

Wuxi Wugou at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wuxi Wugou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dantong Hantong 0–0 Wuxi Wugou

Dantong Hantong and Wuxi Wugou drew 0-0 in League Two on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3 in Yancheng.