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Würzburger Kickers vs Buchbach — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Buchbach
Buchbach
11/28/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 20Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Würzburger Kickers68%
×Draw19%
Buchbach14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
2.26
Buchbach
0.91

Würzburger Kickers creates 148% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 86 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
2.76
Buchbach
1.06

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.76
Buchbach
1.77

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Buchbach+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Buchbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
86%
Würzburger Kickers or Buchbach
81%
Draw or Buchbach
32%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
44%
Buchbach wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
89%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
66%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
39%
Buchbach 1+ goals
60%
Buchbach 2+ goals
23%
Buchbach 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
83%
Buchbach (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Buchbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Buchbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.26

Buchbach attack 1.06 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
68%
level
19%
Buchbach scores more
14%

Würzburger Kickers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Würzburger Kickers vs Buchbach

Würzburger Kickers beat Buchbach 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 28, 2025.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wurzburger.