FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–1 Buchbach: Result & Stats

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Buchbach

3/15/2024

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 25AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers68%

×Draw19%

Buchbach14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchBuchbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.91

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.26

Buchbach

0.91

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 148% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 86 away

2.76

creates per match

1.06

0.76

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.76

Buchbach

1.06

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

Buchbach

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Buchbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Buchbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

86%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or Buchbach

81%

Draw or Buchbach

32%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

44%

Buchbach wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

89%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

66%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

39%

Buchbach 1+ goals

60%

Buchbach 2+ goals

23%

Buchbach 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

83%

Buchbach (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Buchbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Buchbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.26

Buchbach attack 1.06 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

68%

level

19%

Buchbach scores more

14%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff