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Würzburger FV vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
9/18/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Würzburger FV42%
×Draw23%
Jahn Regensburg II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
1.71
Jahn Regensburg II
1.54

Würzburger FV creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.53
Jahn Regensburg II
1.46

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.63
Jahn Regensburg II
1.90

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
65%
Würzburger FV or Jahn Regensburg II
77%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
58%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
22%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
82%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
51%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
24%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
79%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
45%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
55%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.53 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.46 + Würzburger FV defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
42%
level
23%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
35%

Würzburger FV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Würzburger FV vs Jahn Regensburg II

Würzburger FV beat Jahn Regensburg II 5-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage in Würzburg.