Jahn Regensburg II 2–2 Würzburger FV

Jahn Regensburg II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Würzburger FV

11/16/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II54%

×Draw21%

Würzburger FV25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg IIExpected goals in this matchWürzburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.37

Jahn Regensburg II

2.11

Würzburger FV

1.37

Jahn Regensburg II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

2.22

creates per match

1.31

1.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II

2.22

Würzburger FV

1.31

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II

1.43

Würzburger FV

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Würzburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw

75%

Jahn Regensburg II or Würzburger FV

79%

Draw or Würzburger FV

46%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

32%

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

88%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

62%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

35%

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

75%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

40%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

69%

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

54%

level

21%

Würzburger FV scores more

25%

Jahn Regensburg II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff