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Würzburger FV vs Geesdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Geesdorf
Geesdorf
F. Gobbo 84'
N. Reinhart 50'
M. Hanschke 43'
S. Schaffer 40'
5/6/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Würzburger FV69%
×Draw17%
Geesdorf14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
2.63
Geesdorf
1.12

Würzburger FV creates 135% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.55
Geesdorf
0.59

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.65
Geesdorf
3.71

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
Geesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Geesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
86%
Würzburger FV or Geesdorf
83%
Draw or Geesdorf
31%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
48%
Geesdorf wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
93%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
73%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
48%
Geesdorf 1+ goals
67%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
31%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
83%
Geesdorf (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Geesdorf away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.55 + Geesdorf defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.63

Geesdorf attack 0.59 + Würzburger FV defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
69%
level
17%
Geesdorf scores more
14%

Würzburger FV at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
S. Schaffer
43'
M. Hanschke
50'
N. Reinhart
84'
F. Gobbo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Würzburger FV 4–0 Geesdorf

Würzburger FV beat Geesdorf 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 6, 2023.

Goals: S. Schaffer (40'), M. Hanschke (43'), N. Reinhart (50'), F. Gobbo (84').

The match was played at Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage in Würzburg.