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Geesdorf vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Geesdorf
Geesdorf
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
V. Held 30', 8'
Y. Aldijawi 19'
S. Schaffer 63'
L. Imgrund 45+1'
10/8/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 14Metallbau Herold Sportstätte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geesdorf25%
×Draw20%
Würzburger FV54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geesdorf
1.48
Würzburger FV
2.22

Würzburger FV creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Geesdorf
1.00
Würzburger FV
1.32

allows per match

Geesdorf
3.12
Würzburger FV
1.97

finishing

Geesdorf+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geesdorf ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Geesdorf or draw
46%
Geesdorf or Würzburger FV
80%
Draw or Würzburger FV
75%

Winning margin

Geesdorf wins by 2+
11%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Geesdorf 1+ goals
77%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
43%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
19%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
89%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
65%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Geesdorf (draw refunded)
32%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geesdorf at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.97 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geesdorf attack 1.00 + Würzburger FV defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

Würzburger FV attack 1.32 + Geesdorf defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Geesdorf scores more
25%
level
20%
Würzburger FV scores more
54%

Würzburger FV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
V. Held
19'
Y. Aldijawi
30'
V. Held
45+1'
L. Imgrund
63'
S. Schaffer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Geesdorf 3–2 Würzburger FV

Geesdorf beat Würzburger FV 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 8, 2022.

Goals: V. Held (8', 30'), Y. Aldijawi (19'), L. Imgrund (45+1'), S. Schaffer (63').

The match was played at Metallbau Herold Sportstätte in Wiesentheid.