Würzburger FV 6–0 ATSV Erlangen: Result & Stats

Würzburger FV

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

ATSV Erlangen

11/15/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 19Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Würzburger FV43%

×Draw24%

ATSV Erlangen33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Würzburger FVExpected goals in this matchATSV Erlangen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.40

Würzburger FV

1.62

ATSV Erlangen

1.40

Würzburger FV creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

1.55

creates per match

1.15

1.65

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Würzburger FV

1.55

ATSV Erlangen

1.15

allows per match

Würzburger FV

1.65

ATSV Erlangen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

ATSV Erlangen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw

67%

Würzburger FV or ATSV Erlangen

76%

Draw or ATSV Erlangen

57%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

22%

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

80%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

48%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

22%

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

75%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

41%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

56%

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.55 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Würzburger FV defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Würzburger FV scores more

43%

level

24%

ATSV Erlangen scores more

33%

Würzburger FV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff