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ATSV Erlangen vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
G. Perera 62'
L. Markert 4'
M. Lotzen 33'
4/5/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATSV Erlangen50%
×Draw23%
Würzburger FV27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.89
Würzburger FV
1.34

ATSV Erlangen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
73%
ATSV Erlangen or Würzburger FV
77%
Draw or Würzburger FV
50%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
28%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
85%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
56%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
29%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
74%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
39%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
65%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
50%
level
23%
Würzburger FV scores more
27%

ATSV Erlangen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Markert
33'
M. Lotzen
62'
G. Perera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATSV Erlangen vs Würzburger FV

ATSV Erlangen beat Würzburger FV 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 5, 2024.

Goals: L. Markert (4'), M. Lotzen (33'), G. Perera (62').

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.