Würzburger FV 6–1 1. SC Feucht: Result & Stats

Würzburger FV

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

1. SC Feucht

S. Schaffer 90+2'

P. Obrusnik 83'

J. Wild 65', 39', 29'

D. Michel 26'

N. Wessner 74'

5/1/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 35Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Würzburger FV51%

×Draw21%

1. SC Feucht28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Würzburger FVExpected goals in this match1. SC Feucht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.51

Würzburger FV

2.09

1. SC Feucht

1.51

Würzburger FV creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

1.55

creates per match

1.37

1.65

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Würzburger FV

1.55

1. SC Feucht

1.37

allows per match

Würzburger FV

1.65

1. SC Feucht

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

1. SC Feucht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw

72%

Würzburger FV or 1. SC Feucht

79%

Draw or 1. SC Feucht

49%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

30%

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

88%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

62%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

34%

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals

78%

1. SC Feucht 2+ goals

44%

1. SC Feucht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

65%

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

1. SC Feucht away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.55 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.09

1. SC Feucht attack 1.37 + Würzburger FV defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Würzburger FV scores more

51%

level

21%

1. SC Feucht scores more

28%

Würzburger FV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

D. Michel

29'

J. Wild

39'

J. Wild

65'

J. Wild

74'

N. Wessner

83'

P. Obrusnik

90+2'

S. Schaffer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff