Wuppertaler SV U19 3–8 Paderborn U19

Wuppertaler SV U19

FT

3 – 8

HT: 1 – 3

Paderborn U19

4/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · West - 21Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wuppertaler SV U1924%

×Draw20%

Paderborn U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuppertaler SV U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.35

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.48

Paderborn U19

2.35

Paderborn U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 58 away

1.18

creates per match

2.12

2.58

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.18

Paderborn U19

2.12

allows per match

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.58

Paderborn U19

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuppertaler SV U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Wuppertaler SV U19 or draw

43%

Wuppertaler SV U19 or Paderborn U19

80%

Draw or Paderborn U19

76%

Winning margin

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

10%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

77%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

43%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

19%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

90%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

68%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuppertaler SV U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.58 · 33 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.78 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 1.18 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Paderborn U19 attack 2.12 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Paderborn U19 scores more

57%

Paderborn U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff