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Paderborn U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
9/11/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 1Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Paderborn U1968%
×Draw17%
Wuppertaler SV U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn U19
2.50
Wuppertaler SV U19
1.06

Paderborn U19 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

Paderborn U19
2.33
Wuppertaler SV U19
0.79

allows per match

Paderborn U19
1.33
Wuppertaler SV U19
2.67

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw
86%
Paderborn U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19
83%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19
32%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
46%
Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals
92%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
71%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
45%
Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
65%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
29%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.33 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more
68%
level
17%
Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
14%

Paderborn U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–1 Wuppertaler SV U19

Paderborn U19 and Wuppertaler SV U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.