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Avenir de Tombouctou vs Bakaridjan — Première Division 2019

Avenir de Tombouctou
Avenir de Tombouctou
CANC
15:00
Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
1/11/2015Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 6Stade Municipal de Tombouctou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Avenir de Tombouctou30%
×Draw34%
Bakaridjan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avenir de Tombouctou
0.79
Bakaridjan
0.88

Bakaridjan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 96 away

creates per match

Avenir de Tombouctou
0.73
Bakaridjan
1.03

allows per match

Avenir de Tombouctou
0.73
Bakaridjan
0.85

finishing

Avenir de Tombouctou+0.00on par
Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avenir de Tombouctou ↓

Bakaridjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Avenir de Tombouctou or draw
65%
Avenir de Tombouctou or Bakaridjan
66%
Draw or Bakaridjan
70%

Winning margin

Avenir de Tombouctou wins by 2+
10%
Bakaridjan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avenir de Tombouctou 1+ goals
55%
Avenir de Tombouctou 2+ goals
19%
Avenir de Tombouctou 3+ goals
5%
Bakaridjan 1+ goals
59%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
22%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avenir de Tombouctou (draw refunded)
46%
Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avenir de Tombouctou at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avenir de Tombouctou attack 0.73 + Bakaridjan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Bakaridjan attack 1.03 + Avenir de Tombouctou defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Avenir de Tombouctou scores more
30%
level
34%
Bakaridjan scores more
35%

Bakaridjan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Avenir de Tombouctou host Bakaridjan

January 11, 2015: Avenir de Tombouctou take on Bakaridjan in Première Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Avenir de Tombouctou host Bakaridjan at Stade Municipal de Tombouctou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.