Bakaridjan 2–0 Avenir de Tombouctou: Result & Stats

Bakaridjan

FT

2 – 0

Avenir de Tombouctou

12/29/2019

Première Division · Round 12Stade De Barouéli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bakaridjan62%

×Draw23%

Avenir de Tombouctou14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BakaridjanExpected goals in this matchAvenir de Tombouctou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.68

Bakaridjan

1.71

Avenir de Tombouctou

0.68

Bakaridjan creates 151% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 11 away

0.96

creates per match

0.55

0.80

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Bakaridjan

0.96

Avenir de Tombouctou

0.55

allows per match

Bakaridjan

0.80

Avenir de Tombouctou

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Avenir de Tombouctou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Avenir de Tombouctou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw

86%

Bakaridjan or Avenir de Tombouctou

77%

Draw or Avenir de Tombouctou

38%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

35%

Avenir de Tombouctou wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

82%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

51%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

24%

Avenir de Tombouctou 1+ goals

49%

Avenir de Tombouctou 2+ goals

15%

Avenir de Tombouctou 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

81%

Avenir de Tombouctou (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Avenir de Tombouctou away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.96 + Avenir de Tombouctou defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.71

Avenir de Tombouctou attack 0.55 + Bakaridjan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bakaridjan scores more

62%

level

23%

Avenir de Tombouctou scores more

14%

Bakaridjan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.