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Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
9/15/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns51%
×Draw22%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.92
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32

Wuhan Three Towns creates 45% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
74%
Wuhan Three Towns or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
78%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
49%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
29%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
85%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
57%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
30%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
73%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
38%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
66%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
51%
level
22%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
26%

Wuhan Three Towns at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Wuhan Three Towns beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 in Super League on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.