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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
12/4/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.34%
×Draw26%
Wuhan Three Towns40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.29
Wuhan Three Towns
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Wuhan Three Towns
1.50

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Wuhan Three Towns
1.49

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
60%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Wuhan Three Towns
74%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
66%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
15%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
72%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
37%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
14%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
76%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
41%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
46%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.50 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
34%
level
26%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
40%

Wuhan Three Towns at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns

Wuhan Three Towns beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-0 in Super League on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.