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Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
8/28/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns56%
×Draw22%
Shenzhen Ruby FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
2.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.21

Wuhan Three Towns creates 67% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
77%
Wuhan Three Towns or Shenzhen Ruby FC
78%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
44%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
87%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
60%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
70%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
34%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
71%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
56%
level
22%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
23%

Wuhan Three Towns at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 5–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Wuhan Three Towns beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 5-1 in Super League on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.