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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
11/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC32%
×Draw25%
Wuhan Three Towns44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.29
Wuhan Three Towns
1.56

Wuhan Three Towns creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Wuhan Three Towns
1.50

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns
1.49

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
56%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Wuhan Three Towns
75%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
68%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
14%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
72%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
37%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
14%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
79%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
46%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
42%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.50 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
32%
level
25%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
44%

Wuhan Three Towns at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–4 Wuhan Three Towns

Wuhan Three Towns beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-0 in Super League on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.