Wuhan Three Towns 0–2 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

SHANGHAI SIPG

5/5/2025

Super League · Round 11Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns40%

×Draw23%

SHANGHAI SIPG37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.60

Wuhan Three Towns

1.67

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.12

creates per match

2.09

1.12

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

2.12

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.09

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.12

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.22

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.71scores more than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.12scores less

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.71scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

63%

Wuhan Three Towns or SHANGHAI SIPG

77%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

60%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

81%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

50%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

23%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

80%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

47%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

52%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.22 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.12 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.09 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

40%

level

23%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

37%

Wuhan Three Towns at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 0–2 SHANGHAI SIPG

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 in Super League on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.

Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 0–2 SHANGHAI SIPG