Wuhan Three Towns 3–1 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Sang Yifei 86'

M. Ogbu 54'

Luo Senwen 20'

R. Tambe 87'

8/11/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 7Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns50%

×Draw24%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchShaanxi Changan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.12

Wuhan Three Towns

1.67

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.12

Wuhan Three Towns creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 57 away

2.29

creates per match

1.42

0.82

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

2.29

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.42

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

0.82

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

74%

Wuhan Three Towns or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

76%

Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

50%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

27%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

81%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

50%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

23%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

67%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

31%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

66%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.29 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

50%

level

24%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

26%

Wuhan Three Towns at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

46'

46'

54'

56'

R. Tambe← R. Loé

66'

Nie Aoshuang← Duan Yunzi

72'

Sang Yifei← Luo Senwen

72'

Marcão← M. Ogbu

73'

77'

78'

86'

87'

Wuhan

Shaanxi

1

Qi

8

Biao

6

▼

Jie

23

▼

Loé

26

▼

21

4

10

9

▼

He

12

▼

16

21

23

2

▼

Fei

19

Wentao

4

Yan

31

⚽

▼

Senwen

12

Xiaobin

6

▼

Yunzi

37

Haoyang

20

⚽

▼

Ogbu

7

Ademilson

Manager: Pedro Morilla

66'▲Nie Aoshuang←▼Duan Yunzi

72'▲Sang Yifei←▼Luo Senwen

72'▲Marcão←▼M. Ogbu

77'▲Yang Kuo←▼Xiong Fei

Wuhan Three Towns substitutes

15Aoshuang10Yifei13Marcão16Kuo1Fei5Heng9Cheng17Yue30Yue32Haidong38Adiljan42Yiming

Manager: Cespedes

46'▲Wen Wubin←▼Ding Jie

46'▲Li Hong←▼Du Changjie

56'▲R. Tambe←▼R. Loé

73'▲Zu Pengchao←▼Yang He

78'▲Xu Xu←▼Ma Junliang

Shaanxi Changan Athletic substitutes

15Wubin17Hong18Tambe14Pengchao36Xu5You19Hao24Yuxuan28Shuai29Zhenyu34Zhiquan37Kanghao