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Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Wuhan Three Towns — League One 2018

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
7/23/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 3Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic27%
×Draw26%
Wuhan Three Towns47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns
1.47

Wuhan Three Towns creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.46
Wuhan Three Towns
2.00

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.93
Wuhan Three Towns
0.65

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
53%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Wuhan Three Towns
74%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
73%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
10%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
65%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
9%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
77%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
43%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
37%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.05

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.00 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
27%
level
26%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
47%

Wuhan Three Towns at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Wuhan Three Towns

Shaanxi Changan Athletic and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in League One on July 23, 2021.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.