Wuhan Three Towns 1–3 Qingdao Youth Island

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Qingdao Youth Island

Park Ji-Soo 89'

J. Beauguel 51', 32'

Matheus Índio 44'

11/2/2024

Super League · Round 30Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns51%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Youth Island26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchQingdao Youth Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.19

Wuhan Three Towns

1.78

Qingdao Youth Island

1.19

Wuhan Three Towns creates 50% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

1.65

creates per match

1.11

1.26

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.65

Qingdao Youth Island

1.11

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.26

Qingdao Youth Island

1.91

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.36scores less

Qingdao Youth Island-0.06on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

74%

Wuhan Three Towns or Qingdao Youth Island

77%

Draw or Qingdao Youth Island

49%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

28%

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

83%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

53%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

26%

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

70%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

33%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

67%

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.26 · 24 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.65 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.11 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

51%

level

23%

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

26%

Wuhan Three Towns at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Beauguel

Qingdao Youth Island · F

8.9

Match Events

32'

J. Beauguel↳ B. Riascos

33'

Duan Liuyu← Feng Gang

44'

Matheus Índio↳ Duan Liuyu

51'

J. Beauguel↳ B. Riascos

57'

He Chao← Ablahan Haliq

60'

Lei Wenjie← Nelson da Luz

66'

Ren Hang← Liu Yiheng

69'

Abduhelil Osmanjan← B. Riascos

69'

Zhao Honglüe← Song Bowei

86'

Xiong Jizheng← Denny Wang Yi

86'

Xia Xiaoxi← Romário Baldé

86'

Abdurahman Abdukiram← Darlan

89'

Park Ji-Soo

90'

Jean-David Beauguel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanQingdao

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots11

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.78

12Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots11

6On Target3

10Off Target7

5Blocked1

11Inside Box8

10Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

522Total Passes391

452Accurate Passes307

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3