Qingdao Youth Island 0–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Qingdao Youth Island

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wuhan Three Towns

V. Haroyan 42' (OG)

6/16/2024

Super League · Round 15Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island47%

×Draw24%

Wuhan Three Towns28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Youth IslandExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.23

Qingdao Youth Island

1.66

Wuhan Three Towns

1.23

Qingdao Youth Island creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.43

creates per match

1.04

1.43

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island

1.43

Wuhan Three Towns

1.04

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island

1.43

Wuhan Three Towns

1.89

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island-0.05on par

Wuhan Three Towns-0.04on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw

72%

Qingdao Youth Island or Wuhan Three Towns

76%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

53%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

25%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

81%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

49%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

23%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

71%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

35%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

63%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.43 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.66

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.04 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

47%

level

24%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

28%

Qingdao Youth Island at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Ji Jiabao

Qingdao Youth Island · G

10.0

Match Events

40'

Romário Baldé← Liu Yue

42'

V. HaroyanOwn goal

46'

Lei Wenjie← Ge Zhen

46'

Liu Pujin← Tian Yong

46'

Liu Ruofan← Asqer Afrden

61'

Ablahan Haliq← He Chao

63'

J. Beauguel← Abduhelil Osmanjan

69'

B. Riascos← Chen Xiangyu

78'

Song Bowei← Piao Shihao

79'

Ruofan Liu

86'

Luo Senwen← Darlan

90+3'

Abraham Halik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoWuhan

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots23

2Corners6

12Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots23

5On Target10

3Off Target7

1Blocked6

8Inside Box14

1Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

376Total Passes418

299Accurate Passes348

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

11Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1