Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Nantong Zhiyun

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nantong Zhiyun

6/29/2024

Super League · Round 17Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns51%

×Draw23%

Nantong Zhiyun26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.28

Wuhan Three Towns

1.88

Nantong Zhiyun

1.28

Wuhan Three Towns creates 47% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 30 away

1.78

creates per match

1.17

1.39

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.78

Nantong Zhiyun

1.17

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.39

Nantong Zhiyun

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

74%

Wuhan Three Towns or Nantong Zhiyun

77%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

49%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

29%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

85%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

56%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

29%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

72%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

37%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

66%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.17 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

51%

level

23%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

26%

Wuhan Three Towns at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff