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Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns — FA Cup 2019

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
7/26/2023FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundRugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun18%
×Draw20%
Wuhan Three Towns62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.14
Wuhan Three Towns
2.26

Wuhan Three Towns creates 98% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.40
Wuhan Three Towns
2.13

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
2.40
Wuhan Three Towns
1.88

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
38%
Nantong Zhiyun or Wuhan Three Towns
80%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
82%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
7%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
68%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
32%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
11%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
89%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
66%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
23%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.40 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.13 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
18%
level
20%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
62%

Wuhan Three Towns at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns

Nantong Zhiyun beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 in FA Cup on July 26, 2023.

The match was played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Rugao.