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Wuhan Three Towns vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
6/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns58%
×Draw21%
Hebei Zhongji21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
2.06
Hebei Zhongji
1.17

Wuhan Three Towns creates 76% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
79%
Wuhan Three Towns or Hebei Zhongji
79%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
42%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
35%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
87%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
61%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
34%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
69%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
33%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
73%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
58%
level
21%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
21%

Wuhan Three Towns at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Hebei Zhongji

Wuhan Three Towns beat Hebei Zhongji 5-0 in Super League on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.