Hebei Zhongji 0–4 Wuhan Three Towns: Result & Stats

Hebei Zhongji

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Wuhan Three Towns

6/3/2022

Super League · Round 1Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hebei Zhongji31%

×Draw24%

Wuhan Three Towns46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebei ZhongjiExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.70

Hebei Zhongji

1.35

Wuhan Three Towns

1.70

Wuhan Three Towns creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

1.21

creates per match

1.50

1.90

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji

1.21

Wuhan Three Towns

1.50

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji

1.90

Wuhan Three Towns

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw

54%

Hebei Zhongji or Wuhan Three Towns

76%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

69%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

13%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

74%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

39%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

15%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

82%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

51%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

40%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.50 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more

31%

level

24%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

46%

Wuhan Three Towns at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff