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Wuhan Three Towns vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
5/6/2021League OneLeague One · Round 3Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns58%
×Draw23%
Guizhou Zhicheng19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.83
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.94

Wuhan Three Towns creates 95% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
2.29
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
0.82
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
81%
Wuhan Three Towns or Guizhou Zhicheng
77%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
42%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
34%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
84%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
54%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
28%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
61%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
24%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
75%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.29 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
58%
level
23%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
19%

Wuhan Three Towns at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 in League One on May 6, 2021.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.