Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guizhou Zhicheng vs Wuhan Three Towns — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
5/31/2021League OneLeague One · Round 8Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng23%
×Draw25%
Wuhan Three Towns52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
0.98
Wuhan Three Towns
1.59

Wuhan Three Towns creates 62% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Wuhan Three Towns
2.00

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Wuhan Three Towns
0.65

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
48%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Wuhan Three Towns
75%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
77%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
8%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
62%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
26%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
8%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
80%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
47%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
31%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.00 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
23%
level
25%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
52%

Wuhan Three Towns at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guizhou Zhicheng 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Guizhou Zhicheng and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in League One on May 31, 2021.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.