Wuhan Three Towns 4–1 Guangzhou R&F: Result & Stats

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Guangzhou R&F

Davidson 86', 32'

Xie Pengfei 51'

N. Stanciu 10'

Guilherme 17'

11/3/2022

Super League · Round 23Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns50%

×Draw23%

Guangzhou R&F27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou R&F

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.27

Wuhan Three Towns

1.79

Guangzhou R&F

1.27

Wuhan Three Towns creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

1.78

creates per match

1.15

1.39

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.78

Guangzhou R&F

1.15

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.39

Guangzhou R&F

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Guangzhou R&F →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

73%

Wuhan Three Towns or Guangzhou R&F

77%

Draw or Guangzhou R&F

50%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

27%

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

83%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

53%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

26%

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

72%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

36%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

65%

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.15 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

50%

level

23%

Guangzhou R&F scores more

27%

Wuhan Three Towns at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Davidson

Wuhan Three Towns · F

9.9

Match Events

6'

DavidsonGoal cancelled

10'

N. Stanciu↳ Xie Pengfei

17'

Guilherme

32'

Wen Yongjun← Guilherme

32'

Davidson↳ Xie Pengfei

45+2'

46'

51'

56'

58'

Jiang Jihong← Yi Teng

58'

Gui Hong← Song Wenjie

58'

Zhang Gong← Li Yongjia

66'

Xu Haoyang← Deng Hanwen

67'

Zhang Hui← Xie Pengfei

74'

Jihong Jiang

78'

Luo Senwen← He Chao

78'

Zhang Xiaobin← N. Stanciu

83'

Chen Zhizhao← J. Cardona

84'

Deng Zhuoxiang← Ademilson

86'

Davidson↳ Gao Zhunyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanGuangzhou

Overview

63%Possession37%

25Total Shots2

7Corners1

13Fouls30

Shots

25Total Shots2

10On Target1

8Off Target1

7Blocked0

18Inside Box1

7Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

465Total Passes285

384Accurate Passes190

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls30

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0