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Guangzhou R&F vs Wuhan Three Towns — Super League 2018

Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
8/6/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F33%
×Draw23%
Wuhan Three Towns44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou R&F
1.54
Wuhan Three Towns
1.80

Wuhan Three Towns creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F
1.59
Wuhan Three Towns
1.50

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F
2.10
Wuhan Three Towns
1.49

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw
56%
Guangzhou R&F or Wuhan Three Towns
77%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
67%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
16%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
79%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
45%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
20%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
83%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
54%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
43%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.50 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more
33%
level
23%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
44%

Wuhan Three Towns at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou R&F vs Wuhan Three Towns

Wuhan Three Towns beat Guangzhou R&F 3-0 in Super League on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Canton.