Wuhan Three Towns 4–1 Dalian Zhixing

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dalian Zhixing

Wang Jinxian 73'

K. Bevis 47'

Gustavo Sauer 31'

J. Cadiz 24'

N. Stanciu 45' (pen)

3/13/2026

Super League · Round 2Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns46%

×Draw24%

Dalian Zhixing29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.27

Wuhan Three Towns

1.66

Dalian Zhixing

1.27

Wuhan Three Towns creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

1.30

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.65

Dalian Zhixing

1.23

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.30

Dalian Zhixing

1.67

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.27scores less

Dalian Zhixing-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

71%

Wuhan Three Towns or Dalian Zhixing

76%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

54%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

24%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

81%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

49%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

23%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

72%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

36%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

61%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.30 · 21 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.65 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.23 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

46%

level

24%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

29%

Wuhan Three Towns at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Gustavo Sauer

Wuhan Three Towns · F

9.0

Match Events

-5'

Zheng Haoqian

24'

J. Cadiz↳ K. Bevis

28'

Jizheng Xiong

31'

Gustavo Sauer↳ He Guan

45+6'

Mbouri Yamkam

45+4'

Frank AcheampongPenalty confirmed

45'

N. StanciuPenalty

46'

P. Zhu← I. Alimi

46'

Bi Jinhao← Li Ang

47'

K. Bevis↳ Zheng Haoqian

57'

Wang Jinxian← Zheng Haoqian

67'

Zhu Pengyu

71'

Sun Kangbo← Cao Haiqing

72'

Luo Jing← Feng Jing

73'

Zhong Jinbao← Gustavo Sauer

73'

Wang Jinxian↳ Gustavo Sauer

74'

Liao Chengjian← J. Xiong

80'

Liu Yiming← He Guan

80'

L. Jiang← J. Cadiz

84'

Jinxian Wang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanDalian

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots11

4Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots11

6On Target6

1Off Target2

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

249Total Passes357

166Accurate Passes278

67%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides6