Wuhan Three Towns 2–2 Dalian Zhixing

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dalian Zhixing

A. Tudorie 90' (pen)

Zheng Haoqian 89'

C. Malele 34'

W. Mao 14'

5/11/2025

Super League · Round 12Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns47%

×Draw24%

Dalian Zhixing29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

Wuhan Three Towns

1.66

Dalian Zhixing

1.25

Wuhan Three Towns creates 33% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

1.28

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.65

Dalian Zhixing

1.23

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.28

Dalian Zhixing

1.67

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.35scores less

Dalian Zhixing-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

71%

Wuhan Three Towns or Dalian Zhixing

76%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

53%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

25%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

81%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

49%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

23%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

71%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

36%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

62%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.65 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.23 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

47%

level

24%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

29%

Wuhan Three Towns at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Tudorie

Wuhan Three Towns · F

7.7

Match Events

14'

W. Mao↳ P. Zhu

34'

C. Malele↳ Liu Zhurun

35'

Liao Chengjian

46'

Zheng Haoqian← Wang Jinxian

46'

Darlan← Liao Chengjian

66'

P. Yan← P. Zhu

66'

Yang Mingrui← Liu Zhurun

72'

Wang Denny← Deng Hanwen

78'

Lü Zhuoyi

79'

Zhong Jinbao← M. Palacios

79'

Liu Yiming← Gustavo Sauer

81'

Wen Jiabao← Cao Haiqing

81'

Song Yue← W. Mao

84'

Yiming Liu

88'

Fernando Karanga← C. Malele

89'

Zheng Haoqian

90+8'

Denny Wang Yi

90+1'

Jinbao ZhongPenalty confirmed

90'

A. TudoriePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanDalian

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots7

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.76

6Corners4

9Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

516Total Passes287

431Accurate Passes215

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls20

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0