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Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
10/25/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns50%
×Draw23%
Dalian Aerbin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.81
Dalian Aerbin
1.25

Wuhan Three Towns creates 45% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
74%
Wuhan Three Towns or Dalian Aerbin
77%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
50%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
28%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
84%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
54%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
27%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
71%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
36%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
66%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
50%
level
23%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
26%

Wuhan Three Towns at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin

Wuhan Three Towns beat Dalian Aerbin 4-0 in Super League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.