Dalian Aerbin 1–2 Wuhan Three Towns: Result & Stats

Dalian Aerbin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

12/14/2022

Super League · Round 31Dalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dalian Aerbin37%

×Draw25%

Wuhan Three Towns38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian AerbinExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.45

Dalian Aerbin

1.42

Wuhan Three Towns

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 72 away

1.35

creates per match

1.50

1.40

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.35

Wuhan Three Towns

1.50

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.40

Wuhan Three Towns

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw

62%

Dalian Aerbin or Wuhan Three Towns

75%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

63%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

17%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

76%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

41%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

17%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

77%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

42%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

49%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.50 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more

37%

level

25%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

38%

Wuhan Three Towns at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff