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Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2026

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
8/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns49%
×Draw23%
Changchun Yatai28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.84
Changchun Yatai
1.34

Wuhan Three Towns creates 37% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 88 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
72%
Wuhan Three Towns or Changchun Yatai
77%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
51%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
27%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
84%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
55%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
28%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
74%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
39%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
64%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.84

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
49%
level
23%
Changchun Yatai scores more
28%

Wuhan Three Towns at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai

Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai drew 0-0 in Super League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.